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The Second-Best Bets

Keep in mind that when we call certain folks and films "second-best bets," we're not insulting them. Rather, what we mean is that, unlike Streep or Eastwood or "Dreamgirls," they aren't no-brainers from the get-go but seem like strong candidates once you present the facts. For example, if we were to say, "Penélope Cruz has an excellent shot at being nominated, and could possibly win Best Actress," your first reaction might be: "Hmm, Penélope Cruz? Really?" But if you've been lucky enough to see "Volver," the new film from Pedro Almodóvar, then you know that her long-suffering mother is easily the finest thing she's ever done and brings to mind Sophia Loren in "Two Women" — which garnered La Sophia the Oscar. (Almodóvar might also get a Best Director nod if one of the Best Picture directors fails to get nominated.)

Or if we mentioned that former "American Idol" contestant Jennifer Hudson probably has a Supporting Actress nomination in the can for "Dreamgirls," most people might do a spit-take. Until, that is, they see the singer steal the show with a rendition of "And I Am Telling You I'm Not Going" that's reportedly had preview audiences breaking into rapturous applause. Then the lightbulbs above their heads go off. Same for Eddie Murphy, whose James Brown-isms in the same film have pundits furiously typing his name next to the Best Supporting Actor slots.

And be honest: Does the name Rinko Kikuchi ring a bell? It will soon enough, however, as her heartbreaking supporting turn as a deaf girl in "Babel" is easily the standout performance of the film. Other names that have been called out onto the Academy stage before also seem like they've got a fighting chance for another go: Leonardo DiCaprio for "The Departed," Kate Winslet for "Little Children," Edward Norton for "The Painted Veil," Juliette Binoche for "Breaking and Entering." None scream winner by a long shot, but each of the parts showcase solid work that will catch voters' eyes when it comes to filling out the main acting categories.

Finally, there's the name we never thought we'd write in conjunction with an Oscar buzz piece: Ben Affleck. Though he's never been a critical favorite, even the stodgiest reviewer would have to admit that his portrayal of George Reeves (again with the real-life celebrities!) in the otherwise ho-hum "Hollywoodland" made his win at the Venice Film Festival seem legit. A nomination, in other words, wouldn't be that surprising.

The Dark Horses

Every year, there are always a few last-minute contenders that pull ahead in the race and a couple of additions that make you think, gee, all those press campaigns and DVD screeners must have made a difference. Right now, the two dark horses are, coincidentally, winners at last January's Sundance Film Festival. It's an odd element: Sundance is great for launching a movie (and a career), but unlike Cannes and Toronto, Robert Redford's pet project rarely, if ever, provides Oscar fodder.

First off is "Half Nelson," which premiered at Park City, Utah, and has been cleaning up at fests ever since. Almost every review has singled out Ryan Gosling's performance as a crack-addict schoolteacher as one of the best of the year, but most thought that he'd be racking up little more than year-end awards from critics' groups. Then he won the Gotham Award in New York at the end of November; suddenly, everybody started saying Gosling was starting to look like he had strong Best Actor nominee potential. (In a perfect world, we'd love to see his co-star Shareeka Epps get a shout-out for Best Supporting Actress, but as fans of the movie, we'll take what we can get.)

The second movie to start getting a huge Oscar push out of nowhere is "Little Miss Sunshine," Fox's megapopular road comedy that few people would have pegged with nomination potential a month ago. Sure, the "little-movie-that-could" sold for a record $10 million at Sundance, opening to good reviews in August, and consistently great business (it's still playing in some theaters). But Oscar? Apparently so, and many insiders are pointing to the film's quirky, likable tone as a tonic for voters who've had their share of heavy dramas. And the buzz around a supporting nod for Alan Arkin, who plays the heroin-snorting grandfather, is near-deafening. The movie even has an outside chance of scoring a Best Picture nomination according to some. We'll see.

Finally, two familiar faces we've missed seeing are basking in a lot of positive Oscar-potential press right now. Fans of the original "Bad News Bears" have always worshipped Jackie Earle Haley, who played the team's resident bay boy Kelly Leak. After a few more roles, Haley sort of disappeared; rumors that he was delivering pizzas and had given up on the acting game altogether would come and go. Then the actor resurfaced with a vengeance in "Little Children" as a pedophile, and bang! Those in the know keep saying that a Best Supporting Actor nod isn't out of the question. And then there's Peter O'Toole, the screen legend who graces films such as "Troy" and "Bright Young Things" with cameos but largely stays out of the spotlight these days. That might change if the chatter around his performance as a horny, drunken actor (quite the stretch) in "Venus" is to be believed; at the ripe old age of 74, O'Toole may be poised for a comeback and the chance to add another Oscar to his mantle (he reluctantly accepted an honorary Oscar in 2003). Like many of the people who bask in the awards season buzz, we're sure he'd be thrilled just to be nominated.

David Fear is a film critic for Time Out New York. He's also written for the San Francisco Bay Guardian, Filter and Moviemaker Magazine. He lives in Brooklyn, N.Y.

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