By David Fear
Special to MSN Movies

In the spring, it's barely a whisper. During the summer months, you might qualify it as a low, barely perceptible hum. By the end of autumn, however, it's official: The "Oscar buzz" goes from white noise to a volume level slightly below that of a jet engine. As awards season slowly gains momentum and those ubiquitous "for your consideration" ads start to appear in the entertainment trade papers, every Hollywood insider — or those who fancy themselves as such — starts turning into a Tinseltown Criswell, weighing statistics and consulting crystal balls about who's got a lock on the golden bald guy and who doesn't stand a chance.

Once the pace-setting Golden Globe nominations are announced on Dec. 14, most theories about who will (and won't) be getting gold-leafed invites to the Academy's big show will be either defended or dismissed. But movies are already jockeying for pole position and several front-runners are already beginning to emerge, with the same handful of names being bandied about by industry bigwigs and bloggers. We thought we'd take our own stab at handicapping which films and actors could be filling the five slots of the major six categories. We've divided the buzz into three categories: "The Usual Suspects," "The Second-Best Bets" and "The Dark Horses." Let the guess-timating begin. (Note: Actors, directors and films with a good shot at getting Oscar nominations appear in bold.)

The Usual Suspects

Like death and taxes, you can be sure of one thing: The Academy loves watching true stories about artists triumphing over adversity, geniuses scaling great heights and martyrs who make defining statements before succumbing to tragic ends.

So it's no surprise that several actors who've played famous (and infamous) real-life figures are garnering a great deal of hype. Forrest Whitaker's scary portrayal of Idi Amin in "The Last King of Scotland" manages to make the late Ugandan dictator seem more human and somehow, more monstrous; it's the dictionary definition of a bravura performance. Ditto Helen Mirren's brittle, funny Queen Elizabeth II in "The Queen," whose regent finally rises to the test of engaging with her subjects during Princess Diana's death. It's both an amazing feat of mimicry and a sympathetic look at the matriarch figurehead, and you shouldn't be surprised if Michael Sheen gets a nod as well for turning Tony Blair into a boy wonder. And while few folks have yet to see Renée Zellweger as Beatrix Potter in "Miss Potter" — the biopic that hopes to do for the "Tales of Peter Rabbit" author what "Finding Neverland" did for J.M. Barrie — the early word is that she's plays her as nurturing, plucky and socially conscious ... the sort of trifecta that's often pure catnip for voters.

If last year's big winner is any indication, multilayered message movies are still considered the genre du jour, which bodes well for "Babel." This tragic triptych involving an American couple, a Mexican nanny and a Japanese teenager — all loosely connected, naturally — came out of Cannes with critical kudos, and although the reviews were mixed after its wide release last month, the movie will inevitably end up on a number of year-end lists. The buzz also seems good for the film's director Alejandro González Iñarritu, Brad Pitt for Best Actor and Cate Blanchett, whose role could net her a Supporting Actress nomination ... although she could be up against another cast member in that category (more on that in a second).

Blanchett also has prominent roles in both "The Good German" and "Notes on a Scandal," although "German's" prospects are beginning to dim due to negative word of mouth, and the people behind "Scandal" seem more likely to put their weight behind perennial Oscar nominee Judi Dench. The great dame has quite the meaty role in Richard Eyre's psychological drama, and considering she has five nominations (and one win) to her name, it's almost assured she'll be a shoe-in for the shortlist. The same goes for Clint Eastwood, a longtime Academy favorite. Though his World War II epic "Flags of Our Fathers" got off to a slow start, the mid-December release of its companion piece — "Letters from Iwo Jima" — should put it back in the limelight.

And what, pray tell, would an Oscars ceremony be without Meryl Streep's name somewhere on the ballot? While Robert Altman's recent passing has undoubtedly had folks scrambling back to rewatch their collaboration, "A Prairie Home Companion," it's her flashier Cruella deVille-like fashion editor in "The Devil Wears Prada" that will put her in the running. Other sure things, according to the heavy buzz factor: Annette Bening for "Running With Scissors"; the old-school musical "Dreamgirls" and its director, Bill Condon (who'll be hoping the same nostalgic mojo that earned "Chicago" an Oscar is in the house); and "The Departed," along with Best Supporting Actor Jack Nicholson (we know he's going to be there in the front row anyway, so why not?) and director Martin Scorsese. The funny thing about Scorsese's campaign this year is that he's not running one at all; oddly enough, his refusals to join the customary hullabaloo has only made the buzz around him and his stellar crime drama louder.

Next: The Second-Best Bets and Dark Horses