Our picks for who will win and who should win on Oscar night

By David Fear
Special to MSN Movies

A wise man once said, "We are all interested in the future, for that is where you and I are going to spend the rest of our lives." (Thank you, Criswell.) And although it's impossible to harness our precognitive powers to see everything that will happen in the weeks and months to come, there are a few things we can hazard a guess or three at: who will be the next celebrity to have a public racist rant or enter rehab; what TV show or amusement-park ride will be adapted into the next big-budget blockbuster (our money is on "The Many Loves of Dobie Gillis," starring Freddie Prinze Jr.); and, of course, which films and actors are walking away with this year's Oscars.

Come Feb. 25, we'll have our answers as to who'll officially be coronated a winner and who'll remain merely an Academy Award nominee; until then, it's time to play the annual Oscar predictions game. Like every other so-called expert, we've spent countless hours sifting through statistics, argued in online forums and taken notes while the pre-Oscar parade of awards shows handed out their statuettes. Although this year seems to be filled with more they've-got-it-in-the-bag calls than dead heats, remember: There's still no such thing as a sure thing. Or is there? Hmmm ...

Best Supporting Actor
Eddie "Dreamgirls" Murphy's domination at the Golden Globes and Screen Actors Guild awards suggests he should be preparing his speech right about now, but that doesn't mean you should count out a certain "Sunshine" boy who could easily pull a last-minute coup. Normally, the equation goes like this: Character Actor + Showy, Eccentric Role = Congratulations, You Just Joined the Winners' Circle. All of which points to Alan Arkin, whose turn as your everyday irascible, leather-vest-wearing, heroin-snorting grandpa in "Little Miss Sunshine" is the dictionary definition of adorable deviancy.

Who Will Win: But we're still thinking Murphy is the man here. Despite the rumblings that billboards for his cruel, crass comedy "Norbit" have allegedly turned off some academy members, people are still talking about how good is his amalgamation of James Brown and Marvin Gaye long after they've dismissed "Dreamgirls" itself. The comedian could have just reverted to his old Brown impersonation from his "Saturday Night Live" days, but he actually delivers a multilayered performance. Voters are ready to recognize him.

Who Should Win: As much as we admire Murphy's dramatic turn, we'd love to see Jackie Earle Haley take it for "Little Children." Not only is his portrayal of a pedophile an exercise in making creepy feel sympathetic, the fact that this talented actor is back in the limelight after battling personal demons and industry indifference is almost like a real-life "Rocky" story. Mark Wahlberg's cool, calm turn in "The Departed" would also be OK in our book, if for no other reason than we love the way he says, "I'm the guy who does my job. You must be the other guy."

Best Supporting Actress
Remember earlier, when we mentioned how there was no such thing as a sure thing? We're taking that back now. If anyone thinks that the other four nominees -- talented though they are -- have a chance at beating out Jennifer Hudson for this year's honor, then we commend them on their optimism. Both contenders from "Babel," Rinko Kikuchi and Adriana Barraza, did fine jobs in a film that was this year's "Crash," but their name recognition is small among voters and they virtually cancel each other out. Cate Blanchett won the award two years ago. Why Abigail Breslin was included at all is a bit of a mystery, which leaves the juggernaut with the jaw-dropping set of pipes ...

Who Will Win: Hudson has cleaned up everywhere from regional critics' circles and guild awards to the Golden Globes, and long after you've forgotten most of "Dreamgirls," you'll remember her clutching herself and channeling Mahalia Jackson as she sings "And I'm Telling You I'm Not Going." We would sooner burn our cash than bet against her. Expect a derisive shout-out to Simon Cowell ("American Idol"), who famously dismissed her from the show. Yes, we know: Who's laughing now, right?

Who Should Win: Of the nominees, frankly, we think Hudson deserves to carry that little gold guy out of the auditorium. Sure, she has basically been racking up statues primarily on that one scene, but you could still point to a half-dozen of her other moments where she tosses off sadness, sass and a soul-bearing song with panache. In other words, Hudson hits all the right notes throughout. (Sorry, sorry, we'll tone the puns down.)

Best Actor
It's a strong, impressive lineup in this category, for the most part: a living legend in his autumn years; a young buck who's been doing consistently amazing work on the independent scene; a bona fide matinee idol stretching his dramatic chops; one of the more versatile actors of the past 20 years; and, um, Leonardo DiCaprio, who somehow got nominated for the wrong role. Yet again, however, there's a clear front-runner who has been the man to beat at every other ceremony. And chances are good that he'll add a well-deserved Oscar to his trophy-filled mantle.

Who Will Win: We're talking about, of course, Forest Whitaker, who's nabbed a BAFTA, a SAG award, a Golden Globe and Best Actor honors from the National Board of Review for his devastating Idi Amin in "The Last King of Scotland." Although the movie itself is a little lukewarm, no one can say that Whitaker's performance isn't spellbinding. The fact that he's playing a real person (albeit a psychotic dictator who was accused of practicing cannibalism) helps his case, but Whitaker will win because (a) he deserves it, (b) he's a well-liked professional who's done great work in the past, and (c) he deserves it. That last one bears repeating.

Who Should Win: Ryan Gosling's crack-smoking high school teacher in "Half Nelson" was flat-out the best acting we saw last year -- and maybe even the past few years. How Gosling manages to sidestep the clichés of both the teacher-who-changed-my-life and a million other portrayals of on-screen drug addiction is a minor miracle; we know the nomination itself is the award -- blah, blah, blah -- but in our utopian little world, we'd like to see our man Ryan up at the podium.

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