The big story of Tuesday's Oscar nominations wasn't that "Walk the Line" was snubbed for a Best Picture nod (not that execs on the 20th Century Fox lot weren't a bit stunned). Instead, journalists quickly pounced on the fact that "Brokeback Mountain" lead all films with eight nominations and was therefore the prohibitive favorite to win Oscar gold. What the media hasn't caught on to is that Paul Haggis' beloved/despised (depending on who you talk to) "Crash" is more than a stealth candidate to take the top prize from "Brokeback" -- it may be the actual front runner.

The first sign that "Crash" was more than an underdog occurred last Sunday when the movie took the Best Ensemble award at this year's SAG Awards. Granted, only four of the ten previous winners have won the Best Picture Oscar (it didn't help "Sideways" beat "Million Dollar Baby" last year, despite the comedy's surprise win), but it does show that a significant percentage of the acting branch is behind "Crash." Why does this matter? Out of the 6,000 members of the Motion Picture Academy, the largest individual group are the actors who are almost all SAG members. But, wait, there's more.

Consider this: If "Brokeback Mountain" wins the Best Picture award, it will be the first movie to do so without also being nominated for the Best Editing prize in 25 years ("Ordinary People," for those playing at home). Again, that's not winning the Best Editing category, it's just being nominated. Sounds silly? If you go back even further, only four pictures have accomplished the same feat over the past 42 years! Some Oscar prognosticators may scoff at such intricate details, but it's an ominous sign for the "Brokeback" camp. Oh, and yes, "Crash" was nominated for Best Editing this year.

The Hitlist has also learned that a major industry publication has already polled a sample of approximately 100 Academy members regarding their pick for Best Picture. The publication will most likely not release their findings (if they do at all) until voting has ended for this year's show as to not be accused of actually influencing voters. Who was the leading candidate in this Hollywood straw poll? "Crash." See a trend here?

Now, there's certainly an historical significance to "Brokeback Mountain" leading the way with the most nominations. The last time a picture with fewer nods took the top prize home was "Shakespeare in Love" in 1999 and that scenario rarely occurs. However, in a year where the only studio-produced nominee is "Munich," conventional wisdom may have to be thrown out the window.

Could these just be the thoughts of a nervous and paranoid "Brokeback" supporter who just can't believe the picture is that close to winning? Maybe, but then again, maybe not.