"Sweeney Todd"
For: This serious musical has inspired direction by Tim Burton and gutsy performances by Johnny Depp and Helena Bonham Carter -- both legit best acting contenders.
Against: It's oh, so bloody, bloody, bloody, bloody, which has to be a concern when appearing before the conservative Academy.
Chances: A complete head-scratcher. It has the pedigree and a powerful final act, but the violence could be a sticking point.

"American Gangster"
For: It has both the star power of Denzel Washington, Russell Crowe and director Ridley Scott and a box-office take expected to reach $150 million.
Against: Unlike last year's similarly positioned "The Departed," the reviews were good but not out of this world.
Chances: They don't call it show business for nothing. The Academy always wants to reward a prestige pic that makes some dough. And "Gangster" fills this year's slot.

"3:10 to Yuma"
For: With its impressive reviews, good box-office earnings and a reaction similar to "The Departed," Hollywood folks love it.
Against: Lionsgate's strategy was to release in September so they could distribute commercial DVDs with all the extras to guild members in December (most studios just send "for your consideration" screeners). A similar effort worked for the studio's drama "Crash," but some think "3:10" should have stood out more among the late fall and winter fare.
Chances: Stronger than some prognosticators might think. Don't be surprised if it makes the final five.

"The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"
For: Critics are rallying around this French-language biopic produced by longtime Steven Spielberg collaborator Kathleen Kennedy (who has previously received five Best Picture nominations).
Against: There have been only four non-English language Best Picture nominees during the past decade, and the only recognizable star is Max von Sydow.
Chances: Academy members usually rally behind films that leave them with the strongest emotional reaction. If enough of them see "Diving," it has a shot.

"Juno"
For: The picture is a charming comedy about a serious subject that doesn't insult either its lead character (expected Best Actress nominee Ellen Page) or its audience.
Against: Will enough members of the Academy think this "little movie" is worthy of a Best Picture vote?
Chances: It's a dark horse for sure, but Fox Searchlight is hoping it's this year's "Little Miss Sunshine."

"Charlie Wilson's War"
For: Tom Hanks, Julia Roberts and director Mike Nichols have all felt Oscar's glow before, and "West Wing" creator Aaron Sorkin's screenplay is said to be an entertaining take on a true story.
Against: Nichols has gone down this road before with "Primary Colors," and the results were not pretty.
Chances: If Nichols can skew the line of serious drama and comedy, it could knock one of the "darker" films out of the race.

Long shots: "Zodiac," "Once," "Into the Wild," "Hairspray" and "The Great Debaters."

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