... Nov. 25, 2008
Warner Bros.
Oscar Watch: Party Crashers and Wild Cards

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These flicks are in prime position to land in the final two Best Picture nomination slots. At this point, though, the tea leaves aren't telling anything other than to look out for some genuine surprises when the candidates are announced the morning of Jan. 27. It's likely that both slots will be filled by two of the following five films.

"The Dark Knight"
Pros: You keep hearing some critics talk about how they can't find another movie to knock "Knight" out of the top slot of their year-end 10-best lists. Will Academy members be thinking the same thing? Plus, after lying low as the other contenders debuted this fall, Warner Bros. is finally beginning the full-court press on this film's campaign (meaning: they want it and believe in it).
Cons: There are still those Academy members who mumble that it's a "superhero" movie and therefore want to automatically disqualify it. However, if enough voters are passionate about it, that opinion could change once it's in the final five.

"WALL-E"
Pros: There is no doubt that it will be one of the best-reviewed films of the year when all is said and done. And, more importantly, those who love it, love it.
Cons: Despite an in-your-face campaign from Disney, there is obvious reluctance among Academy members to nominate an animated movie in the Best Picture race. Wasn't that why the Best Animated Picture category was created?

"Revolutionary Road"
Pros: Powerhouse performances all around, including those of big stars Leonardo DiCaprio and Kate Winslet. It also features one of the more dramatic and memorable third acts of any film this year.
Cons: While that final stanza is impressive, the picture is serious, strong stuff that doesn't give you a warm and fuzzy feeling when you leave the theater. However, Paramount Vantage overcame that hurdle before with both "Babel" and "There Will Be Blood." Is three times the charm?

"The Wrestler"
Pros: A true comeback for star Mickey Rourke, and probably the best independent film this year. Expect it to be near the top of many critics' top-10 lists, and it will be adored by the younger male set of the Academy (yes, they exist).
Cons: Um, Rourke. The actor has had his run in the gossip rags over the years and is in danger of saying something inflammatory at any given moment. Luckily for Fox Searchlight, he's supposed to be shooting a movie in the middle of nowhere for the next month or two. You can bet they are hoping there isn't a drinking establishment within 100 miles of the set (wishful thinking).

"Milk"
Pros: Sean Penn is getting raves for his portrayal of slain political pioneer Harvey Milk, and director Gus Van Sant has done a fantastic job recreating 1970s San Francisco with a fraction of the budget David Fincher had on "Zodiac," which occurred in the same time period.
Cons: The film should receive respectful notices, but not the glowing variety for which Focus was hoping. That's likely because the picture's high point is when Milk defeats a statewide proposition at the beginning of the film's third act. It's sad to say it, but most find his assassination scene and the public tribute afterward anticlimactic and not as moving as they should be.

Look for more awards season coverage on MSN Movies all the way to the Academy Awards on Feb. 22, 2009.

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