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2008 is quickly becoming the year of prestige letdown in Hollywood. While the summer movies overdelivered in the quality department, the fall has found one Oscar candidate after another screening to disappointment ("Changeling"), ridicule ("Australia") or respectful reclassification ("Doubt"). The question is: With the nation's economic woes slowly creeping into the industry's mindset (box office is up, but DVD sales are projecting down), the SAG contract still unsettled, and the mini-majors possibly going extinct, which film can divert the Academy's attention and spark its enthusiasm? Unlike previous years, no one's going out on a limb and proclaiming a Best Picture winner in this strange climate -- not yet anyway. Here's a rundown of where the race stands, with only two real contenders ("The Reader" and "Gran Torino") unscreened by this prognosticator at publication date:

Ready for the Spotlight

"The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
Pros: It's epic, beautifully made and has a heartbreaking romance at its center. That might do it.
Cons: The movie has many moving moments, but the ending doesn't have the emotional wallop of say ...

"Slumdog Millionaire"
Pros: The most original contender is also the biggest crowd pleaser thanks to a "you know it's coming" ending that still tugs at the heartstrings.
Cons: Half the movie is in Hindi and none of the actors is well known on this side of the Atlantic. Yet, this contender feels like it has a better shot of winning than recent Searchlight nominees "Juno" and "Little Miss Sunshine."

"Frost/Nixon"
Pros: It has some of the best performances of the year from Frank Langella and Michael Sheen, plus it's clearly the most accomplished film that director Ron Howard (who already has one Best Picture to his credit) has ever made.
Cons: While many moviegoers (and Academy members, for that matter) would never guess it was adapted from a play, the movie is still smaller in scope than its competition.

Unknown Quantities

"The Reader"
Pros: Great pedigree with stars Ralph Fiennes and Kate Winslet, plus director Stephen Daldry of "The Hours." And while it's based on a best-selling German novel, the film's story line is the most Oscar-friendly of any picture this year.
Cons: Scott Rudin, the Oscar-winning producer of "No Country for Old Men" (also behind "Doubt" and "Revolutionary Road" this year), removed his name from "The Reader" after disagreeing with the film's other backer, Harvey Weinstein, that the picture was ready for release. Earlier this decade, Weinstein could ram a film like this down the Academy's throats. However, his company's current financial woes, which he publicly disputes, make a strong Academy campaign unlikely.

"Gran Torino"
Pros: Clint Eastwood is making news by stepping in front of the camera for the first time since "Million Dollar Baby," in a role that may be his last. The Oscar favorite also has a history of delivering last-minute Best Picture candidates with "Baby" and "Letters From Iwo Jima."
Cons: Buzz from the very small group of critics who have seen it suggests that Clint's a shoo-in for a Best Actor nod, but that the movie isn't true Best Picture material. We'll know for sure when it debuts for guild members and the press right after the Thanksgiving holiday.