The general consensus among those of us who spend way too much time paying attention to such things, is that"The Departed," "Dreamgirls" and "The Queen" are pretty much surefire locks to get Oscar nominations for Best Picture later this month. After critics went gaga for Clint Eastwood's "Letters from Iwo Jima," most pundits assumed, with the director's longstanding love affair with the Academy, that "Iwo Jima" would be the fourth nominee. That would leave "Little Miss Sunshine," "Babel" and possibly "United 93" duking it out for the final slot. Last week, the tea leaves began to change. The influential 3,000-plus Producers Guild of America members didn't nominate "Iwo Jima" as one of its best pictures of the year candidates. A few days later the movie received zero Screen Actor's Guild Award nominations, including the coveted "Best Ensemble" category. SAG doesn't always line up exactly with the eventual Oscar nominees, but as with all guild groups, many SAG members are also Academy members. All you have to do is look at the "surprise" win of "Crash" at least year's SAG Awards to realize the assumed Oscar frontrunner, "Brokeback Mountain," was in trouble. But where does this leave Clint?

As an intended companion picture to "Flags of our Fathers," "Iwo Jima" wasn't supposed to be released until this spring. After "Flags" was a huge disappointment at the box office (which always influences Awards voters), "Iwo Jima's" release was moved up because the thought was that the combined artistic strength of both films could help kick-start the "Flags" campaign. To everyone's surprise (including backers Warner Bros. and DreamWorks), the critical reception to "Iwo Jima" blew "Flags" out of the water, and the respective studios and Eastwood (because he really does care about this stuff) placed their bets on the second film. Why the sudden disconnect between the guilds and the critics? Just look at the box office. Even in very limited release, similar critically-loved pictures "Children of Men" and "Pan's Labyrinth" noticeably outperformed "Iwo Jima." So even if guild members could get in free, it doesn't mean they wanted to. And, while screeners are supposed to help in these cases (guild members get truckloads of them before the holidays), it appears "Iwo Jima" was relegated to the bottom of the pile this year.

Taking all of that into consideration, the flick isn't dead yet. It would be stunning if Eastwood didn't receive a nomination from his peers at the Director's Guild of America,and Oscar voters still have until January 13 to turn in their nomination ballots. Still, the surprising strength of "Babel" and "Little Miss Sunshine" so far may have taken Eastwood out of the major race this year.

Maybe.

Next Column: Get ready for the thrills of "The Hitcher"; and more.

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