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Sunday, Feb. 24, 2013, at 5:30 p.m. PT/8:30 p.m. ET on ABC

Oscar analysis: Surprises, snubs and head-scratchers

'Lincoln' is on top, but watch out for 'Silver Linings Playbook' and 'Life of Pi'

By Steve Pond

Did Academy voters just clear a path to the stage for Steven Spielberg and "Lincoln"?

Or did they indicate that Spielberg's historical drama has unexpectedly serious challengers, not in the two CIA-themed dramas that were expected to be Best Picture contenders, but in David O. Russell's delicious bipolar comedy "Silver Linings Playbook" and Ang Lee's visionary "Life of Pi."

With a stunning set of nominations highlighted by a Best Director category that almost no one could have envisioned, Oscar voters upended conventional wisdom and placed a huge obstacle in the way of Ben Affleck's "Argo" and Kathryn Bigelow's "Zero Dark Thirty," as well as Tom Hooper's "Les Miserables."

Those three directors were left out of the Best Director category in favor of Spielberg, Russell, Lee and two surprises: Michael Haneke for "Amour" and Benh Zeitlin for his first feature, "Beasts of the Southern Wild."

Also from TheWrap: Oscar Nominations: The Complete List

And that means that "Argo," "ZDT" and "Les Mis" won't be the last film standing on Oscar night unless they pull off the extraordinarily rare trick last performed by "Driving Miss Daisy" in 1989, winning Best Picture without getting a directing nomination.

The shocking selections by the AMPAS Directors Branch seemingly put Spielberg into the driver's seat, particularly since the rest of the Academy agreed and gave "Lincoln" 12 nominations, more than any other movie.

Still, one shouldn't overlook the fact that "Silver Linings Playbook," which took a hit earlier in the week when Russell failed to land a nomination from the Directors Guild, came back with a vengeance on Thursday morning, landing picture, director and writing nominations as well as noms in all four acting categories: Bradley Cooper and Jennifer Lawrence in the lead categories, Robert De Niro and Jacki Weaver in supporting.

The last movie to pull that off: Warren Beatty's "Reds," in 1981.

(Not to put a damper on the high that the "Silver Linings" crew is no doubt feeling, but "Reds" lost Best Picture to "Chariots of Fire.")

If "Silver Linings" shows unexpected strength, particularly with the huge Actors Branch, "Life of Pi" also proves to be a formidable contender. Written off by some as the last of the big six (behind "Lincoln," "Argo," "ZDT," "Silver Linings" and "Les Mis"), it captured picture, director and screenplay nomination, and came in second to "Lincoln" with 11 overall noms.

So instead of "Lincoln," "Argo" and "ZDT" leading the charge, is it now "Lincoln," "Silver Linings" and "Pi"?

What did you think of the nominations? Sound off on MSN Movies Facebook.

That's the way it looks, but Oscar watchers shouldn't forget that this has been a strange season indeed. The combination of earlier nominations and a move to online voting caused confusion and may have depressed the level of voter participation (we'll never know, but it's safe to assume that AMPAS has asked for the figures from PricewaterhouseCoopers).

And voters are now settling in for a long stretch in which they can catch up on movies they might have missed, re-watch ones they've already seen and change their minds.

After rushing to have their ballots in by Jan. 4, Academy members now have almost a full month before they can even cast their final ballots; those polls don't even open until Feb. 8, four long weeks from now. 

That's a lot of time for things to change, a lot of time for "Lincoln" to hold onto its lead or for "Pi" or "Silver Linings" to mount a rally.

And it may even be time enough for "Argo," "Zero Dark Thirty" or "Les Mis" to use "we wuz robbed!" as a rallying cry for a Best Picture surge.

The first stretch of this truncated Oscar season has been strange and chaotic, culminating in some startling nominations. The homestretch might be dull and endless, or it might be spirited and scrappy.

And speaking of scrappy, what is one to make of the unexpectedly strong showing for "Beasts of the Southern Wild"? That ragged indie, a Sundance sensation that managed to stick around all year, not only got the writing nomination that was expected by most, and the Best Picture nom that was expected by some, but also got a Best Director slot for the 30-year-old Zeitlin and a Best Actress nomination for 9-year-old Quvenzhané Wallis, who became the category's youngest nominee ever, and will be up against the oldest, 85-year-old Emmanuelle Riva from "Amour." 

A year ago this month, Zeitlin brought Wallis onstage at the Sundance Film Festival, where the pint-sized thespian introduced herself thusly: "I'm Quvenzhané Wallis, and I like to party!"

She'll have ample opportunity to do just that now -- and if she does, she'll fit right in with the vibe of a nominations announcement that was part announcement and part comedy routine between Oscar host Seth MacFarlane and actress Emma Stone.

The first sign that this wasn't your father's Oscar announcement might have been the fact that Academy President Hawk Koch had turned the usual prez duties over to MacFarlane. The second was MacFarlane's minute or so of standup before he introduced Stone. The third was the fact that Stone's introduction included a plug for her new movie, "Gangster Squad,"  this from an organization that until recently didn't even allow movie ads on the Oscar show because they thought it would be unseemly.

Other surprises, shocks, snubs and significant head-scratchers:

The Academy showed a distinct lack of affection for Wes Anderson's "Moonrise Kingdom," which received a screenplay nom but nothing else.

On the other hand, voters showed lots of amour to "Amour," which landed the expected Best Foreign Language Film nomination but also got into the Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actress and Best Original Screenplay fields.

In more good news for "Amour," the selection committees narrowed the foreign-language category down from the nine-film shortlist to the five, and did not choose "The Intouchables," the French box-office hit and Weinstein Company release that might have had a chance to upset "Amour" in the final voting.

In the acting categories, voters failed to recognize John Hawkes ("The Sessions") and Marion Cotillard ("Rust and Bone"), both of whom were thought to be in line for nominations.

In the Best Animated Feature category, the giant-slayer wasn't one the usual foreign-language entries from GKIDS, but Sony Animation's "The Pirates! Band of Misfits" in place of DreamWorks Animation's big-budget "Rise of the Guardians." "The Pirates!" joins Focus' "ParaNorman" in a category otherwise owned by Disney/Pixar, which landed the three other noms for "Brave," "Frankenweenie" and "Wreck-It Ralph."

And getting back to that wild Best Director category, earlier this week we wrote about how it would likely feature four former winners squaring off against each other. But by snubbing past champs Bigelow and Hooper, Academy voters came up with two past winners, Spielberg and Lee; one former nominee, Russell; and two newcomers, Zeitlin and Haneke.

That left Best Supporting Actor as the category in which everybody in the running (Tommy Lee Jones, Christoph Waltz, Robert De Niro, Alan Arkin and Philip Seymour Hoffman) already has an Oscar at home.

As for what all this portends come the Oscar show on Feb. 24, who knows? It's safer to predict, based on MacFarlane's performance in announcing the nominations, that the show will be loose and jokey.

And maybe even, if these nominations are any indication, a little surprising.

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Jan 10, 2013 12:37PM

What, can the writer not say what they mean in the first few sentances? I read the whole review and still did not catch the meaning. What are the top choices and is Argo a front runner or is Lincon also subbed?.


Can we get someone else to write a decent story?

Jan 10, 2013 12:37PM
the overall sewer known as hollywood, where mostly degenerates congratulating each other with idol worthless statues.
Jan 10, 2013 12:28PM
I just want to know which films and who is nominated. Why does the writer of the article feel the need to mention the Oscars in the past and why should we care what he thinks? The Oscars in the past have not always honored the BEST.
Jan 10, 2013 12:27PM
the voting must have taken place in Florida.
Jan 10, 2013 12:27PM

Once again, either the Academy is out of touch, or I misunderstand the meaning of "best".  With limited time and money, I go to the movies to be ENTERTAINED.  I don't intend to go and learn something; I don't want to further someone's political view; I just want to be told a good story.  Of the 9 movies nominated for Best Picture, I only cared about seeing 4 of them (Argo, Django, Les Mis, and Lincoln), and have actually only seen 1 (Les Mis).  The rest I'll have to check out on DVD some time.  I did see Avengers, Skyfall, Dark Knight Rises, Hobbit, Bourne, and Hunger Games.  In my opinion, if the Academy says a movie I liked wasn't "moving" or "artsy" enough, but the movie made $1.5B (Avengers) worldwide, I say THAT movie won, no matter what Oscar says.

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